2012 Archived Guidelines
Prior to Hurricane Sandy, it was expected that the already taunt relationship between used vehicle supply and demand would see little change in the trend of depreciation outperforming historical levels, but the destruction left by the storm has exacerbated this situation and there has been a predictable reaction in used prices. At just 1.0%, used vehicle depreciation in November was decidedly better than the 2.1% decline expected for the month before Sandy’s arrival and the one-point or $155 improvement in depreciation was in line with NADA’s post-storm estimated lift of 0.5-to-1.5%. While depreciation for all segments slowed, the change is mid-size car and van price movement was especially pronounced. In the two months leading up to November, prices for these two segments dropped by market-leading averages of 2.8% and 3.7%, respectively. However, in November prices only dropped by a collective average of 1.0%. Download >
At 2.3%, AuctionNet wholesale prices experienced a steeper over-the-month decline in October than the 2.0% average fall that had been observed over the previous three months, but the downward movement was slightly better than what is typically seen over the month and was a significant improvement over the 4% drop recorded in October 2011. Download>
AuctionNet wholesale prices fell by 2.0% or $340 in September, making the month the third in a row where over-the-month depreciation generally equaled this amount. Relative to last year, the month’s moderate decline was a substantial improvement over the 4.0% drop in price witnessed last September. This inequality in depreciation placed prices a slight 0.2% above year-ago levels, which is the first time since May that this has occurred. Download >
The 28 cent rise in the price of gasoline that occurred over the month of August did little to change the course that used vehicle prices have been following over the past few months, as monthly losses were most severe for compact and mid-size cars, while pric-es for the majority of truck segments dropped just slightly. At a market level, wholesale prices fell by a better-than-expected 1.9% or $316, making August the third month in a row that losses were at or below the 2.0% mark. Download >
Strong demand for trucks offset another weak month for cars in July, and as a result, AuctionNet wholesale losses were a slightly better than expected 2.0% relative to June. The three month slide in gasoline prices – which fell by another 10 cents over-the-month – continued to have the greatest negative impact on compact and midsize cars. Prices for the two segments fell by 2.9% in July and have dropped by 10.2% and 9%, respectively, since gas prices peaked at $3.90 per gallon back in April. In dollar terms, this equates to a loss of nearly $1,300 for each segment. Download >
Compact car depreciation accelerates in June. AuctionNet wholesale price movement in June re-mained true to seasonal form as the softness in de-mand typically witnessed after the spring helped to pull overall market prices down by $300 or 1.7% compared to May. New Vehicle Sales SAAR Improves to 14.1M in June. Incentive spending up 6% to $2,548 with days’ supply up 6 days to 59. Prices for older models grow through June for units 6-to-7 years old 12% higher than last year. In the Commercial Truck sector, Sleeper pricing remains at historically-high plateau. Medium duty markets not showing much strength or weakness. Sales volume per dealership notably lower than last month. Download >
Used vehicle prices are softening, with wholesale prices having dropped by 1.3% in May and Used Car Guide values falling another 1.6% in June's edition. July's depreciation is predicted to be more severe. New vehicle sales slowed to a 13.7M SAAR in May with incentive spending up. The Commercial Truck sector is seeing Class 8 retail sleeper prices remaining high. Download >
New vehicle sales remained on a positive course through April as the month’s tally of 1.18M sales was a 2.3% improvement over the prior year and the sea-sonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 14.4M was a 100k unit increase over March. Hybrid demand is weaker than in years' past, while used vehicle prices hit their annual peak, a result in line with NADA’s prediction that used prices would peak during the middle of the month. Class 8 pricing and volume remain high, with used sleeper tractor pricing has remaining at a high level despite ever-increasing mileage. Download >
Used vehicle prices are expected to peak in April. Trade-in values on used cars are expected to peak over the next few weeks. Compact and mid-size cars will appreciate in value and outpace other segments because of rising gasoline prices, shortage of inventory and strong consumer demand for fuel-efficient vehicles. Car prices have also Ignited in March. NADA’s analysts are forecasting that used vehicle prices will continue to be firm through May before declining through the summer months, which differs from last year when higher prices held through July. Commercial Truck dealerships are also seeing strong sales, with retail sales the highest since August of 2010. Download>
New vehicle sales improved by a substantial 15.8% in February and the month’s SAR of just over 15M units was the highest figure recorded since February 2008. Excluding new vehicle sales, the incremental progress indicated by recent economic data wasn’t quite as encouraging as what was seen in last month’s review. Countering the spike in consumer confidence, industrial production last month gave back some of January’s gains. Looking ahead to April, the rising cost of gasoline will most certainly stifle spending as consumers compensate for more expensive trips to the pump, and it would not come as a surprise if consumer confidence were to also take a step back.By many accounts, the economy is in a more of a legitimate position of strength than it was last year at this time; hopefully this will translate into just a mild pullback in consumer spending rather than a more significant retreat. Download >
January saw the year off to a phenomenal start as the month’s 14.1M seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) was the highest seen in a non-clunkers month since May 2008. Relative to last year, new vehicle sales in January grew by 11.5%! NADA Used CAr Guide predicts used light vehicle prices will increase by 1.8% in 2012 with official Used Car Guide values for February’s edition mostly flat or up. In the Commercial Truck sector, the Class 8 highway market are forecasted to flatten out in 2012. Download >
Total light vehicle sales in December increased by 9% on an annual basis to reach 1.24M units. As a result, full year sales landed at 12.7M units which translated to a 10.2% increase over 2010’s tally of 11.6M. In addition, the month’s SAAR of 13.5M units marked the fourth month in a row that the thirteen million unit threshold was breached. December’s sales activity helped to push the average days’ supply for the year down to 55 days, which is the lowest level seen since at least 2003. Download >
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