The graph below looks at wholesale (auction and dealer-to-dealer) selling prices for four-to-seven year-old Class 3 and 4 Cabovers and Class 6 Conventionals since January of this year. Figures have been adjusted for mileage but not age. Average age varied less than four months in the cabover segment and less than seven months in the conventional segment, so that adjustment was deemed unnecessary.
As you can see, cabovers lost just under 10% of their value from January to August – a fairly low rate of depreciation by historical standards. Conventionals, on the other hand, lost a substantial 38% of their value (30% if you ignore January’s high average).
We attribute some of the conventionals’ depreciation to an increased number of those trucks sold in the June through August time period. The largest monthly dip for this segment was in May, the month before volume increased. This is likely an example of the market absorbing a more-than-adequate supply of trucks.
The supply situation for Cabovers appea ...
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With about 85% of August data collected, NADA forecasts that average retail pricing in the sleeper market was flat to slightly higher compared to July. Average mileage for that segment was flat to slightly lower. NADA expects a second month of pricing above $50,000 – a historically high level.
Stay tuned for more August data in the next few days.
Preliminary August data suggests that retail used truck sales volume was identical to July at 5.9 trucks per rooftop (and very similar to June’s 5.8). This result is 0.6 trucks lower than the same three-month period last year.
Supply of trucks with under 600,000 miles remains the critical factor in pricing and sales volume. We expect this trend to remain consistent through the end of the year.
The September edition of NADA Commercial Truck Guidelines is now ready for download! With the market stable and model year trends developing, July's average pricing was on the upside! Download the entire edition here to read on.
The graph below traces average retail selling price of sleeper tractors by mileage range from January to July of this year. As we have stated, pricing has been essentially flat during this period. There was some late-spring weakness in the higher mileage ranges, but those segments came back a bit in July.
As we discuss in the September edition of GuideLines, the sleeper market overall remains strong, with the newest model years showing mild depreciation. Based on the data in the graph, mileage alone has not been responsible for price movements in the under-700K segments. We discuss other potential factors In GuideLines.
Final July data shows an uptick in retail sleeper tractor pricing on average. This result was somewhat unexpected given the flat results earlier in the year combined with mixed economic data. Sales volume at the individual rooftop level remains steady at a level slightly below average.
What are the fundamentals behind these trends? The moderately low volume reported by dealerships is likely a supply issue. There remains a lack of low- to average-mileage trucks available to sell. At the same time, there are valid demand factors likely playing a role as well. The mild contraction in the manufacturing sector combined with extremely conservative investment strategies is likely impacting sales volume.
What cuts through all this gray area is the fact that the market continues to display a strong appetite for trucks with under 600,000 miles. This indicates that the demand side is the lesser of the factors.
Stay tuned for a more complete analysis in the September edition of GuideLines, available early next week.
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