With about 75% of our September data collected, NADA is forecasting a decline of approximately $1000 in the average retail price of a used sleeper tractor. This decrease would represent a 2.0% decrease vs. August, and would leave this September above last September by approximately $500. Mileage is estimated to be similar to August, with an upward move of less than 5000.
Average pricing has been fluctuating in the low single digit percentage range for most of 2012, so a delta of this size does not point to a meaningful shift in market dynamics. Qualitative research points to increased negative sentiment in the used truck market, but so far this sentiment has not translated into appreciably lower pricing. We foresee flat to mildly downward results for the remainder of the year.
The graph below traces auction pricing for 4-7 year old medium duty conventionals.
September’s auction results show a continued slide in Class 6 selling prices. Classes 4 and 5 firmed up for September, although not enough to push the moving 2-month average in the upward direction. We’re attributing this performance partly to a higher mileage and slightly older mix of Class 6 trucks sold compared to Classes 4 and 5. In addition, supply in that segment is most likely more than adequate to meet demand.
We will continue to track performance in these segments and report back periodically.
Word of mouth from dealers is trending toward the negative when it comes to sales volume, with some dealers reporting that September was an unusually weak month. However, in aggregate, our September database does not show a drastic decrease in volume compared to August.
As of today, we’ve collected about 70% of our retail sales data from the dealer channel. We estimate that September will come in at 5.5-5.7 trucks per dealership, for a decrease vs. August in the low single digits percentagewise (see graph).
After a relatively strong first quarter, sales took a notable dip in May, rebounding moderately in June to 5.8 trucks per dealership. Since June, volume has trended towards the mid-5’s. Our position has been that this middling performance is mainly a supply issue, driven by the lack of sleeper tractors with under 600,000 miles available in the marketplace. On the demand side, the Presidential election, uncertainty about the financial cliff, mixed manufacturing data, and traditional seasonality ar ...
Read the rest of entry »
The October edition of NADA Commercial Truck Guidelines is now ready for download!
With all of our August data received, we have determined that the average sleeper tractor retailed in August sold for $50,767 and had 537,540 miles. This figure beats July’s record by $700, and is higher than last August by $2414 or 4.8%.
Average mileage has remained relatively steady in the 535-555,000 range since November, 2011, so the price increases of the past two months are notable.
Even four-year-old sleepers, which had been depreciating since May, headed back up in August with a $1098 increase over July to end up at $67,046 on average. This figure is lower than last August by $1422 or 2.1%. August’s average mileage was 434,956, which is 10,877 lower than July and 22,203 lower than last August.
So the sleeper market is still showing considerable strength, but the newest model years are no longer driving increases in the averages. Demand for trucks with under 600,000 miles will continue to support high pricing.
Stay tuned for more detailed analysis early next week in the October edition o ...
Read the rest of entry »