From the category archives: Uncategorized
To follow up on my last post, here's how the wholesale sleeper market performed in the first half of each year:
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For the third month in a row, the overall value of the retail sleeper tractor market set a 5+ year high. May’s result just eked out April’s, coming in at $51,646 – a $255 (or 0.5%) increase month-over-month, and a $3525 (or 6.8%) increase year-over-year. That tractor had 533,293 miles – a 4110 (or 0.8%) increase month-over-month, and a 19,750 (or 3.7%) decrease year-over-year. In terms of age, May’s average was 75 months – 3 months newer than April, and identical to May, 2012.
As has been the case since late last year, the number of 2009-2011 model year tractors available to the secondary market continues to grow. These newer model years are now coming off lease, and generally feature mileage in the 500’s or lower. This mileage range makes the trucks very attractive to the used truck buyer.
Interestingly, the 2007 model year, which was built in the highest numbers since the late 1990’s, was finally overtaken in the secondary market by the 2009 model year. 2007’s are averaging in the low 600,00 ...
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The last few November sales reports provided additional insight into market behavior of 2010 model year sleepers. Specifically, additional data for that cohort proved our prediction of upward movement wrong. Our database now shows a more logical month-over-month decrease, with October’s increase an anomaly.
This additional data also pushed the overall sleeper average lower, to $48,711 – a $655 decrease vs. October. Average mileage decreased less than predicted, posting a 1.3% decrease rather than 5.3%.
These results illustrate the difficulty of predicting market behavior based on limited data. With a historically small number of 2009-2011 model year trucks built, we will continue to refrain from making definitive statements about monthly performance until 100% of data is received.
Stay tuned for a complete analysis in next week’s edition of GuideLines.
In October, the retail sleeper market as a whole posted a minor $626 (or 1.3%) increase over September, coming in at $49,366. Mileage was very similar, at 551,773 – a 2214 (or 0.4%) increase over September.
Compared to last October, this month’s results were a mere $2 higher, with mileage 27,021 (or 4.9%) higher.
Year-to-date, 2012 is leading 2011 by $2922, with mileage 30,309 higher.
As you can see from the graph below, pre-DPF trucks (’08 and older) have remained essentially flat since the beginning of this year, while newer iron has steadily depreciated. As we’ve said, some of this depreciation is “natural,” as the newest trucks enter the market in greater numbers and with higher mileage.
A the same time, the benchmark four-year-old sleeper has edged lower than same-period 2011 for three months in a row on a mileage-adjusted basis (see graph). This performance suggests softening demand for DPF-equipped iron.
We expect a continuation of these trends into early 2013. Stay tuned for a com ...
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Word of mouth points to a recent uptick in interest in construction trucks. The graph below traces average, mileage-adjusted selling prices for all Class 8 construction trucks reported sold through our retail and wholesale channels. Through September, the data depicts a market moving flat to mildly downward. October’s retail data is still incoming, and we will closely monitor data to catch any changes in this market. Your recent experience is welcome below.
The graph below looks at wholesale (auction and dealer-to-dealer) selling prices for four-to-seven year-old Class 3 and 4 Cabovers and Class 6 Conventionals since January of this year. Figures have been adjusted for mileage but not age. Average age varied less than four months in the cabover segment and less than seven months in the conventional segment, so that adjustment was deemed unnecessary.
As you can see, cabovers lost just under 10% of their value from January to August – a fairly low rate of depreciation by historical standards. Conventionals, on the other hand, lost a substantial 38% of their value (30% if you ignore January’s high average).
We attribute some of the conventionals’ depreciation to an increased number of those trucks sold in the June through August time period. The largest monthly dip for this segment was in May, the month before volume increased. This is likely an example of the market absorbing a more-than-adequate supply of trucks.
The supply situation for Cabovers appea ...
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By now you may have read that December new truck orders jumped up 31% from November, making that month the second-highest of the year. It looks like used truck sales at the dealership level may have taken an unexpected leap as well. With just under 80% of our December reports received, we’re currently looking at about a 22% increase over November. As you can see from the graph, if this result holds, December will be among the best months of the year.
These results support the theory that new and used purchasing behavior was influenced by the Section 179 tax incentive. November may have suffered because buyers completed their fiscal-year 2011 purchases by then, locking in the tax benefits. But December was a clean slate. As such, the bump in volume indicates confidence in demand for freight in the new year.
As for pricing, we have not yet received enough data to comment. Stay tuned for an early look at that data next week.