In a reversal of last month’s results, the lighter end of the medium duty conventional market performed better than the heavier end in September. Our benchmark group of 4-7 year old Class 4 conventionals brought substantially more money than in August, while Class 6’s pulled back. Volume was much lower for Class 4’s, and moderately lower for Class 6’s. Higher average mileage was a factor in the Class 6 pricing pullback.

Specifically, Class 4’s averaged $23,341 in September. This figure is $4,622 (or 24.7%) higher than August, and $4,532 (or 24.1%) higher than September 2015. Class 6’s averaged $17,030 in September. This figure is $8,436 (or 33.1%) lower than August, and $4,168 (or 19.7%) lower than September 2015.

Low volume results in month-over-month volatility that is not necessarily representative of actual market activity. For that reason, we prefer to look at multi-month trends. In the case of our Class 4 benchmark group, pricing in the first 9 months of 2016 has performed very similarly to the same period of 2015, with only $360 (or 1.8%) separating the averages for each period. Average mileage differs by only 2,566 (or 2.3%). On average, Class 4’s have actually gained value in 2016, with a monthly increase of about $111 (or 0.6%) since January.

In the case of our Class 6 group, trucks have followed a more traditional depreciation trend, losing about $670 (or 2.8%) per month in 2016. This figure is moderately higher than the 2.0% monthly depreciation in the first 9 months of 2015. Year-to-date pricing is running $1,129 (or 5.2%) behind 2015. Average mileage is lower by 12,384 (or 7.8%) this year.

Based on year-to-date results, we continue to view the lighter end of the conventional market as outperforming expectations, while the heavier end performs slightly behind historical norms.

See graph below for detail.