It looks like hurricane impact to auction activity was mainly limited to the Houston area, with one major truck auction house postponing their late-August auction by a week. We know that August pricing was unaffected by Hurricane Harvey, and it looks like September’s pricing was not notably impacted by either Harvey or Irma.

Initial data points to a mild decline in September in pricing for the benchmark model we track, in line with natural depreciation. Volume will most likely be down from August. A temporary decrease in demand for trucks in the Houston and South Florida areas could be partially responsible for the decreased volume, although natural market conditions could be the main factor. Demand in the affected areas could potentially mildly increase in upcoming weeks as the rebuilding process continues.

Based on feedback from dealers and fleets, it looks like Class 8 losses will end up on the lower end of estimates. Most fleets kept the majority of their trucks away from the hurricane-prone areas in the period leading up to the storms, and were able to remove most of the trucks already in those areas prior to the weather events. Dealer inventory may represent the biggest area of loss, but of course there is more than enough supply of sleeper tractors to meet any replacement demand. As for the medium duty sector, losses will likely be more notable, and we will follow up when more data is collected. Stay tuned.