The first graph below shows average price and mileage of Class 4-7 conventionals reported sold to NADA through the auction and dealer-to-dealer channels. The second graph shows number of trucks reported sold. Period is January, 2010 to May, 2012.

The pool of available medium duty conventionals appears to be in the same situation as Class 8 trucks – namely, low-mileage trucks are increasingly difficult to find. The average mileage of trucks sold has trended upwards since early 2011, and that trend accelerated in early 2012.

Since January of this year, there has been a near-perfect negative correlation between price and mileage. This means that the market has established a ceiling on what trucks of a given mileage are worth. We currently estimate that pricing meets resistance at roughly the 135,000 mile level. Trucks with mileage under that level should trend higher than average on price, and the opposite should be true for trucks with mileage over that level.

As for number of trucks sold, there was a nice acceleration in the early part of the recovery, but by late 2010, volume had pulled back to about half the peak. However, price increased as volume decreased, so the pullback in volume was not strictly a demand situation. Supply of low-mileage trucks was also a likely factor.

In sum, given the relatively steady number of trucks sold each month combined with the logical relationship between price and mileage, we consider the medium duty conventional market steady. We expect this segment to trend flat to upwards.

 




New to NADA Used Car Guide!
We are now selling raw commercial vehicle auction data, as follows:

- Basic auction results including Make, Model, Mileage, Sale Type (dealer, manufacturer, fleet/lease, repossession, salvage), Sale Date, Sale Price, Region (20), and VIN for each record

- Auction results from all Manheim and ADESA locations, plus participating ABC, ServNet, and independent auctions

- Database is updated weekly, and includes historical sales back to 2002

- Raw data (.csv) format is easily manipulated in Access or Excel

Pricing is based on amount of data requested.  We can provide anything from a few months’ results for a single vehicle to every vehicle reported sold since 2002.

To order, contact me at cvisser@nada.org or 800-248-6232, Extension: 4731.