With about 90% of our June sales reports received from the dealer channel, we are projecting that retail sales per dealership remained at 5.1, identical to May (note the revision to the May number due to multiple late reports). This result is 1.5 trucks lower than April, and 1.1 trucks lower than last June. May has been a slow month for the last three years, but there was a June rebound in 2010 and 2011. Not this year.
We are still waiting for additional dealer and OEM reports, but initial sales data indicates that June sleeper pricing has not changed appreciably from May. We are projecting a price decrease of under 2%, or somewhere in the $500-$800 range, with average mileage very similar to May.
We will withhold final analysis until we receive 100% of our data. As of now, we consider the decrease in volume mainly a supply issue – namely, a continued shortage of trucks with less than 550,000 miles - combined with a mild relaxation of demand due to reduced expectations for economic growth for the remainder of the year.
Your observations are welcome, as always.