It was reported today that Navistar will install Cummins’ ISX15 in certain International trucks starting in January. Navistar previously announced adoption of the In-Cylinder Technology Plus (Selective Catalytic Reduction) strategy in MaxxForce engines starting next year.

A common topic of discussion recently has been the potential impact to market performance of International trucks in advance of the addition of SCR. In 2003 and 2007, adoption of new engine technologies resulted in a pre-buy, as buyers were cautious of the new technology and wary of price increases. However, there was no pre-buy of note in advance of the 2010 emissions level, partly due to depressed economic conditions, and partly due to assurances that 2010 engines would return increased fuel mileage.

Regarding the addition of Cummins, that engine has been in service for over two years now, so it’s a known quantity. The only variable is integration with the International platform, which should be of minimal concern. As for the ICT+ MaxxForce engines, that is a deeper technological change. If potential customers are assured of the new engine’s performance and reliability, and cost remains in line with the competition, market share could remain stable.

We look forward to ongoing information from Navistar about development of the ICT+ solution.