The graph below looks at wholesale (auction and dealer-to-dealer) selling prices for four-to-seven year-old Class 3 and 4 Cabovers and Class 6 Conventionals since January of this year. Figures have been adjusted for mileage but not age. Average age varied less than four months in the cabover segment and less than seven months in the conventional segment, so that adjustment was deemed unnecessary.
As you can see, cabovers lost just under 10% of their value from January to August – a fairly low rate of depreciation by historical standards. Conventionals, on the other hand, lost a substantial 38% of their value (30% if you ignore January’s high average).
We attribute some of the conventionals’ depreciation to an increased number of those trucks sold in the June through August time period. The largest monthly dip for this segment was in May, the month before volume increased. This is likely an example of the market absorbing a more-than-adequate supply of trucks.
The supply situation for Cabovers appears healthier. Volume-related depreciation has likely been priced in to that segment.
Stay tuned for more analysis early next week.