The last few November sales reports provided additional insight into market behavior of 2010 model year sleepers. Specifically, additional data for that cohort proved our prediction of upward movement wrong. Our database now shows a more logical month-over-month decrease, with October’s increase an anomaly.

This additional data also pushed the overall sleeper average lower, to $48,711 – a $655 decrease vs. October. Average mileage decreased less than predicted, posting a 1.3% decrease rather than 5.3%.

These results illustrate the difficulty of predicting market behavior based on limited data. With a historically small number of 2009-2011 model year trucks built, we will continue to refrain from making definitive statements about monthly performance until 100% of data is received.

Stay tuned for a complete analysis in next week’s edition of GuideLines.