As the graph below indicates, the 2009 and 2010 model years are really coming on line, comprising a much higher proportion of trucks sold since late 2012. 

One main reason for this trend is of course the normal 4-5 year trade-in cycle common in the industry. There is also another factor with interesting implications for market dynamics. We’ve reported that trucks with over 600,000 miles are increasingly being pushed to the wholesale channel, while trucks with lower mileage are enjoying historically high retail value. 

2007’s are now averaging at or slightly above that critical 600,000 mile level. Meanwhile, newer model years with lower mileage are snapped up as soon as they become available. This is why we continue to predict that the low production rates of newer model year sleeper tractors will support strong pricing going forward.