Since January, we’ve been reporting on the extremely low number of 2008-2011 model year Class 6 Conventionals sold. Along with that low volume has come historically high pricing. In March, the average 4-7 year-old Class 6 Conventional sold wholesale for $25,014 – this highest average price in at least six years. Mileage was moderately low, at 136,871, continuing a trend begun in January. 

Given the low monthly volume of this cohort, it is useful to look at quarterly results for a basis of comparison. Average price for the first quarter of 2014 was $24,005, compared to $16,207 in 1Q 2013 and $20,783 in 1Q 2012. Mileage has been lower in 2014, coming in at 147,413 vs. 183,076 in 1Q 2013 and 140,278 in 1Q 2012.

Given these results, it appears that lower average mileage is the main factor behind the higher pricing. At the same time, a deeper dive into the data suggests that trucks at given mileage points are bringing moderately higher pricing in the current period. As such, our confidence in the strength of the Class 6 market is increasing.

Stay tuned for additional analysis in the May edition of Guidelines, available the second week of May.