With about 40% of our September dealer sales data received, it looks like retail sales volume remained subdued for the second month in a row. We forecast that individual rooftops retailed 5.4 trucks this month, a decrease of 0.2 truck vs. August, and 1.1 trucks vs. July. As we’ve stated, we are not concerned about the late summer/early fall dip in volume, as this seasonality is historically typical (although not necessarily so in the post-recession period). With pricing still at strong levels, and no external factors impacting demand, we are not assigning much meaning to the drop in retail volume.

What we DO assign meaning to is a rise in the number of trucks sold through wholesale channels - specifically the dealer-to-dealer channel. With only 40% of September data received, wholesale volume is only 10% off the entire month of August. So far, it looks like this volume was driven almost entirely by large groups of 2010-2012 International ProStars cycling through the market. It is unusual to see this type of trade activity for a specific model in a one-month period. These results are a byproduct of the unusual history of the ProStar in the marketplace.

It is too early to perform analysis on pricing, but at this point September ProStar wholesale results don’t look too far off where they are currently positioned in NADA valuations. We will of course update pricing data after we receive all of our data next week. Stay tuned.