The latest month for which NADA has a complete set of data – November – shows average retail pricing off the all-time record set last month by just over 2%. Average mileage dipped again, a direct effect of the ever-improving availability of sub-500,000 mile iron. Sales volume was off - both in terms of sales per dealership and overall – but this behavior is typical for November (and upcoming winter months). We expect these pricing and volume figures to remain similar through the winter.

Specifically, the average used sleeper tractor retailed in November for $59,750 - $1,312 (or 2.1%) less than October, and $4,687 (or 8.5%) greater than November 2013. Average mileage was 487,528 – 9,965 (or 2.0%) less than October, and the lowest in 4 years. Year-over-year, average mileage was down 40,078 (or 7.6%). See graph below.

Interestingly, unlike average mileage, average age has remained steady since late-2012. We would logically expect age and mileage to move up or down proportionally, but this has not been the case. What we are seeing is the model year mix of available trucks adjusting back to normality. More specifically, we’re seeing the end of the outsized influence of 2007 model year trucks. Through late-2012, trucks of this vintage dominated the market. Once the supply of low- to average-mileage 2007’s started to dry up, the model year mix started to balance out.

Currently, the retail channel is dominated by the 2010-2012 model years, as opposed to the 2007-2010 model years this time last year. This trend reflects the disappearance of desirable 2007’s as well as the shift back to shorter trade cycles following the recession. See graph below.

Please note that the next Commercial Truck Blog will be published December 30th. We wish our readers a warm and happy holiday season.