With the first quarter nearly over, 3 year-old sleeper tractors are bringing essentially the same money they brought at this time last year. 4 year-old trucks are running slightly behind, and 5 year-old trucks are doing notably better than last year. The performance of 5 year-old trucks is interesting, since that model year (2011) was the first full year for the SCR emissions regime. See graph below for detail.


2013’s averaged $90,694 through February 2015, compared to $90,125 for 2012’s through February 2014. 
2012’s averaged $74,562 through February 2015, compared to $77,034 for 2011’s through February 2014. 
2011’s averaged $67,706 through February 2015, compared to $61,956 for 2010’s through February 2014.

Model years 2010-2012 represent the majority of sleepers sold in the retail channel at present. The relative scarcity of a 3 year-old truck (currently represented by the 2013 model year) is the main factor behind its stable pricing. Conversely, the increased supply of 2012’s since early 2014 is the main factor behind that model year’s depreciation. 2011’s are the surprise, bringing stronger pricing most likely due to a combination of marketplace preference for SCR technology and relatively wide availability of sub-600,000-mile units. 

Stay tuned early next week for results from the wholesale channel, where the supply situation is more pronounced.

Also, I'll be attending the Mid-America Trucking Show on Wednesday and Thursday. If you're a reader of this blog, please track me down and say hi.