Unusually low sales activity in the first quarter of 2015 has resulted in somewhat unusual pricing behavior. Late-model trucks - represented by 2011 and newer units – have depreciated moderately heavily, while 2010 and older units have strengthened. Severe winter weather is the likely culprit behind the low sales volume, which makes deeper analysis difficult. 

It’s tempting to say the market for moderately-priced older equipment may be stronger than the market for high-priced newer iron, but we will refrain from making a judgment call until we analyze data from more typical periods. It is somewhat more valid to note that most 2010 and older trucks are not equipped with SCR – a factor not lost on many buyers.

The graphs below show wholesale price and sales volume for Class 4 and 6 conventionals. The price appreciation depicted in the December 2014 through February 2015 period is somewhat misleading, since we revised our definition of “4-7 Year-Old” to include the 2012-2009 model years in January. Previously, that definition consisted of the 2011-2008 model years. So the upward trajectory is due mainly to a newer mix of trucks included, not actual market movement. 

Stay tuned for a deeper dive into this segment in the April edition of Guidelines, available next week.