To follow up on last week’s post concerning the sleeper tractor market correction, we now have additional data showing supply and pricing in the auction lanes. There are essentially three specific makes and models being introduced into the market in large numbers through one particular auction company. This activity is responsible for the unexpected devaluation of the sleeper market overall.

The graphs below show average pricing for one of the three trucks, and total volume for all three. One specific model was selected for the price graph because that truck has traditionally been a strong performer, and is not considered to have chronic mechanical issues. Average price has been adjusted for mileage. We have left the makes and models anonymous to avoid unfairly denigrating those models.

As you can see, the 2013 model year has been hit hardest, with roughly 15% of value lost month over month. Other model years have suffered as well, spreading a similar loss over two months. Less than 100 trucks sold over the course of a few weeks may not seem like a lot, but when those trucks are basically identically-spec’ed, it’s more than the market can bear. As mentioned in the previous post, inventory has been building up in recent months, and dealers don’t want to carry these units over into next year.

The devaluation in this particular auction did not necessarily carry over to other auctions or the retail channel in September. However, it is likely that these channels were impacted to a greater extent in October. We’ll have final October retail results in mid-November.

In the meantime, I look forward to hearing about your market experiences and sharing additional data at the UTA Convention next week.