With fewer auctions held during the holiday months of November and December, the volume of trucks sold will be lower than in recent months. We predict milder monthly depreciation for trucks sold through the largest nationwide no-reserve auction company - closer to 5% as opposed to upwards of 15% seen in recent months.

In terms of the wholesale market overall (including other auctions and dealer-to-dealer activity), our data through October shows pricing of 3-5 year-old sleepers down only 2.1% on average month-over-month. We had predicted October depreciation would accelerate given the results through the one auction company, but that prediction did not pan out. This result, combined with October’s unexpectedly strong retail pricing, makes us a bit more conservative in our depreciation outlook through the end of the year. Overall, depreciation patterns for 2015 should look a lot like 2014, with wholesale down roughly 5%. See graph below for detail.

Of course, we are aware that dealers are sitting on increased inventory, and fleets will continue to return trades to the market in upcoming months. At the same time, there are still retail buyers out there, as evidenced by October’s incrementally stronger retail volume. In view of all these factors, consider us somewhat surprised that the most severe devaluation remains limited to one large auction house.