Average wholesale (auction plus dealer-to-dealer) pricing for sleeper tractors three to five years of age dipped 1.9% from May to June, with the majority of the decline driven by a group of low-priced 2014 Volvo VNL64T 670’s. Aside from this group, most models brought pricing similar to May.

Year to date, trucks of model years 2014-2012 have lost an average of 15.4% of their value, for a monthly average of 2.6%. This figure continues to outperform our earlier forecast of 4-5%. However, 2.6% is more than double the 1.2% average monthly depreciation in the same period of 2015. Further, trucks of this age cohort are bringing an average of $7,965 (or 14.9%) less money in 2016 than 2015.

In terms of individual model years, three-year-old trucks have lost 25.9% of their value since January, four-year-old trucks are now essentially flat, and five-year-old trucks have lost 24.0%. The cohort with the best value retention looks to be model year 2013 trucks with 400-500,000 miles. Trucks in this age and mileage range have consistently returned pricing in the low to mid $40,000 range since January. This is probably a sweet spot in terms of age, mileage, and price for many used truck buyers. This same truck was bringing $10,000 more this time last year.

We expect volume to increase in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the uncertainty of the Presidential election will keep companies on the conservative side as it pertains to investment. As such, there is more downward pressure than upward on pricing through the end of the year.