Following steep declines from May to June, depreciation on macro and micro levels relaxed in July. Month-over-month differences were small, while year-over-year differences continue to reflect the supply-driven devaluation than began in mid-2015.

The average sleeper tractor retailed in July was 72 months old, had 489,299 miles, and brought $50,717. Compared to June, trucks sold in July were one month older, had 15,078 (or 3.2) fewer miles, and brought $140 (or 0.3%) less money. Compared to July 2015, trucks sold this month were two months newer, had 5,290 (or 1.1%) fewer miles, and brought $10,188 (or 16.7%) less money. See graph below for detail.

Focusing on trucks three to five years of age, average pricing for this cohort was $59,729 - $201 (or 0.3%) lower than June. Average mileage was 450,240 - 7,846 (or 1.8%) higher than June. Compared to July 2015, average pricing was $10,274 (or 14.7%) lower, and average mileage was 33,769 (or 7.0%) lower.

Average pricing by model year was as follows:

MY2014: $74,316 - $1,315 (or 1.7%) lower than June

MY2013: $59,073 - $1,992 (or 3.3%) lower than June

MY2012: $43,095 - $2,703 (or 6.3%) higher than June

See graph below for detail.

Since January, trucks three to five years of age have lost about $10,000 (or 14%) of their retail value, which translates to roughly 2% per month. Newer trucks have fared best on a percentage basis, with three year old trucks losing about 12% of their value, four year old trucks losing about 14%, and five year old trucks losing about 20% since January.

Monthly valuation swings can be influenced by large packages of identical trucks. For that reason, we prefer to look at multi-month trends. To this end, the 2% per month average depreciation for the 3-5 year-old cohort is the most meaningful figure. This number is slightly less than our 3-5% per month forecast, and suggests a rule of thumb on the lower end of that range might be rational going forward.