For the third month in a row, the volume of the three most common sleeper tractors selling at auctions decreased notably. Pricing for our benchmark dropped moderately. Activity this month was represented mainly by 2012 models.

Specific auction performance of our benchmark model was as follows:

MY2013: $36,000 average; $1,773 (or 4.7%) lower than July

MY2012: $32,000 average; $2,261 (or 6.6%) lower than July

MY2011: $27,400 average; $4,514 (or 14.1%) lower than July

Looking at the year-to-date trend, depreciation in the auction lanes has generally leveled off since late spring. Since January, trucks of model year 2013 have lost about 19% of their value, trucks of model year 2012 have lost about 16% of their value, and trucks of model year 2011 have lost about 17% of their value. These figures translate to an overall monthly loss of just over 2%, which is substantially better than the nearly 5% average monthly loss in the second half of 2015. Of course, trucks sold this time last year were bringing roughly 30% more money than they are now.

Based on the new truck delivery history going back five years, we predict an upward blip in the number of trucks coming off-lease in the short term, then a decrease at the end of the year. We expect another increase in the first quarter of 2017.