From the monthly archives: December, 2011

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'December, 2011'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

Aerodynamic vs. Owner/Operator Pricing Comparison

In our market reports, we’ve focused heavily on the performance of the used sleeper tractor market overall. We have not yet broken this data down into sub-segments to any great extent. Today, we’re going to take a look at how the owner/operator market has fared in comparison to the aerodynamic market. For this analysis, “owner/operator” means traditionally-styled extended-hood, and “aerodynamic” means aerodynamically-styled 120” BBC (or equivalent). We’re looking strictly at highway sleeper tractors in both segments. The first graph outlines the performance of four-year-old trucks, adjusted for mileage. The next three graphs outline average price, average mileage, and average age for all model years of trucks under 1,000,000 miles. Looking at four-year-old trucks, we see that from January-September, there was a consistent price gap of about $17,000 between the two segments. That gap closed considerably for October, but we’re going to call that an anomaly caused by the limited amount of data we have for ...

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November Breather

New truck orders, used truck sales volume, used truck prices, and industrial production all stopped increasing in November. We consider the trucking data to represent a seasonal slowdown as buyers have completed the bulk of their new and used purchasing for the year, locking in tax benefits. Industrial production is probably also exhibiting some seasonality, with an impact from reduced automotive manufacturing. We expect the truck market and general economic factors to regain upward momentum in early 2012. As has been reported in trucking media, new truck orders were down roughly 6000 units in November vs. October, about a 30% decrease. This decrease follows multiple months of increases. There is a relatively substantial tax incentive for buyers to complete orders before the 2012 fiscal year, namely the Section 179 benefit that allows for generous depreciation of equipment. This benefit will be reduced in 2012. Combine this factor with the relatively long lead times for trucks ordered now, and there does a ...

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December 2011 Commercial Truck Guidelines

The ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guidelines for December 2011 is now available, with the class 8 sleeper market cooling down after 2 full years of growth and with evidence of a price ceiling in the retail market for late-model trucks. 2011 average pricing is still crushing the previous three years; the NADA outlook is still strong. To read the full Guidelines, download them here.

Medium Duty Price and Volume

To follow up on our look at medium duty prices from a few weeks ago, here are those graphs with sales volume added. Again, data reflects trucks that were 3-6 years old at time of sale, so we’re looking at the 2009-2006 model years. Data is auction (AuctionNet) and wholesale (dealer sales reports). As mentioned previously, there aren’t too many conclusions to draw from price. Both segments have been essentially flat all year, reflecting the limited change in performance of their respective markets. On the volume side, we see a minor uptick starting in late spring for the cabover segment. Increased volume along with steady selling prices is mildly encouraging. Looking at conventionals, we see a lot more volatility in volume. This volatility is likely caused by timing of rental fleet lease returns. There was some mildly inverse pricing behavior in those months with big swings in volume, but in general it appears that there is a comfort level with conventional pricing regardless of the number of trucks ava ...

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Sales Volume by Model Year

Occasionally we’ll post a look at our raw data just for transparency’s sake. The first graph below gives you a look at where the bulk of our sleeper data lies. Specifically, the graph illustrates the number of sleeper tractors reported sold (retail) for each model year from 2011-2000. The second graph traces average selling price and mileage for those model years. For both graphs, data is from January-September 2011. Keep in mind we’ve pruned out trucks with over 1,000,000 miles, so average mileage for older model years may “seem” low. Also, to clarify, this is just a portion of the total Class 8 data we receive – daycabs, construction/vocational trucks, trucks with over 1,000,000 miles, and auction/wholesale sales are not included here. Again, this is just a look at our raw data. No real observations to be drawn here other than the fact that the sweet spot in our sleeper data is 4-7 model-year-old trucks, and that there is a near-perfect negative correlation between mileage and price. As always, comments ...

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