From the monthly archives: November, 2012

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'November, 2012'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

October Sales Volume Stays Flat

NADA is projecting that its reporting dealers retailed 5.9 trucks per rooftop in October, slightly better than September’s 5.7. Other than the August outlier (at 6.7), every month since May has seen retail sales below 6. Last October came in at 6.7 sales per dealership. The year-to-date average for 2012 is 6.1, essentially identical to last year’s result of 6.2 for the same period.

The reason for this somewhat mediocre performance is well-known by now: Extremely conservative investment strategies driven by political uncertainty. No one believes the Executive and Legislative branches will allow the fiscal cliff to arrive without action, but what is less certain is the extent and timing of the action. Until a compromise is reached, expect these middling results to continue.


 

Construction Market Activity


Word of mouth points to a recent uptick in interest in construction trucks. The graph below traces average, mileage-adjusted selling prices for all Class 8 construction trucks reported sold through our retail and wholesale channels. Through September, the data depicts a market moving flat to mildly downward. October’s retail data is still incoming, and we will closely monitor data to catch any changes in this market. Your recent experience is welcome below.

MaxxForce Marketplace Performance

One major topic of discussion at last week’s Used Truck Association Convention was valuation of International ProStars equipped with MaxxForce engines. The reasons why this topic was popular are beyond the scope of today’s blog. What we will do is examine how MaxxForce-equipped sleeper tractors have fared in the marketplace vs. their ISX-equipped counterparts. The charts below show average price, mileage, and horsepower ratings for retail and wholesale data reported to NADA for the January to October time periods (October data is still incoming). Data that would show only one unit sold has not been included. A monthly breakdown would provide more detail as to whether there has been a shift in pricing over time, but unfortunately the volume of data is not large enough to drill down to that level. The data presented below is the most accurate representation of marketplace performance we can currently provide. On the retail side, the 2009 model year provides some basis of comparison. The $3822 difference c ...

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Depreciation Returns to the Sleeper Market

The dramatic increase in selling prices that began in late 2009 looks to have reversed course in August, with the trend continuing to the present. The first graph below illustrates this observation. In the benchmark four-year-old segment, average mileage has been essentially flat since May, while pricing has decreased. This relationship suggests the market may have found ceilings on pricing for this segment. In addition, average mileage for this segment did not reach the same heights as last year. It’s possible that the market has absorbed a good portion of the trucks that had been kept in service longer than usual, and is starting to adjust back to a more typical age and mileage mix. The second graph shows how the newest model years are responsible for the bulk of the depreciation in our averages. This behavior is expected, given the increasing numbers of 2010’s and 2009’s in the marketplace over time. However, decreasing prices combined with flat mileage is evidence that the market has established limits. ...

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