From the monthly archives: April, 2012

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'April, 2012'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

Class 8 Construction Market Likely Benefiting from Drilling and Fracking

Buyers of Class 8 construction trucks seem to be finding a comfort level with pricing. Looking at the retail graph below, average selling prices became much more consistent in early 2011. Since then, price levels have increased moderately – from an average of $69,046 in the first half of 2011 to $74,760 in the second half. The first quarter of 2012 is steady at $74,573. The wholesale graph paints a somewhat less optimistic picture of the market. The second half of 2011 was actually lower than the first half by about $1000, which we consider essentially no change. We should note that due to the low volume of trucks sold in this segment, it is difficult to make specific judgments about model year and region in either the retail or wholesale channels. However, general trending is valid. It is all but certain that the bottom of this market is behind us. The sectors of construction that would make a major impact on demand for trucks – residential, commercial, and infrastructure - have not yet recovere ...

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Used Truck Prices Unfazed by Economic Uncertainty

Preliminary March data indicates that the Class 8 sleeper market ticked up a bit on slightly lower average mileage. Four-year-old sleeper tractors were also up notably despite higher mileage. Dealer sales volume? Comparable to the best months of 2011. Like last year, selected economic measures have slowed their rate of improvement going in to the 2nd quarter. However, also like last year, the economy on average continues to slowly improve. In the final analysis, the biggest factor limiting growth is “uncertainty.” There are many factors contributing to this uncertainty – some legitimate, some a little ridiculous – but at the end of the day, if a factory continues to receive orders, it’s not going to curtail production because it’s afraid of the European debt crisis. Like everyone else, we have been watching new truck order rate, which to date in 2012 lags the 2011 average by just under 25%. However, keep in mind that there was a degree of artificial inflation to the second half of 2011 due to the impend ...

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1-Ton Cab & Chassis Performance

Construction activity is still essentially flat lined, but consumers have been spending more on residential improvements. Since the 1-Ton cab & chassis market is heavily exposed to these sectors, how has the segment performed over the past two years? I would like to start off first with a clarification. The term “1-Ton” really has no connection to actual payload or hauling capability of a modern truck. The typical 1-Ton truck of today can carry at least 2 tons, even with single rear wheels. And since we’re looking solely at cab & chassis models, the term has even less meaning. To be clear, then, this study includes cab & chassis versions of the Chevy/GMC 3500, Ford F350, Dodge/Ram 3500, and Hino 145. Figures include both gas- and diesel- powered trucks. We will look strictly at wholesale data, since the vast majority of our sales data for this segment is comprised of auction results. Looking at the graphs below, the most obvious trend is the shift in average age and price that occurred in th ...

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Are 2007’s Dominating the Retail Sleeper Market?

Since early 2011, 2007 model year sleeper tractors have been showing up in our retail data in proportionally greater numbers. The graph below illustrates the increasing volume of 2007 sleepers reported sold. Note that the March figures are “in-process,” and represent about 85% of what we ultimately expect to collect by the end of the month.   This outsized 2007 performance is actually fairly easy to explain. First, 2007 was the pre-buy model year prior to the introduction of the “2007” (2008 model year) emissions standards. In addition, the 2007 calendar year marked the start of the Great Recession, which would depress truck production for four years. The new truck build numbers tell the story: 2007 model year (pre-buy):   378,000 2008 model year (start of recession):  212,000 2009 model year:    205,000 2010 model year:    118,000 Based on these build figures, it is logical that the 2007 model year will be present in the marketplace in proporti ...

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April Commercial Truck Guidelines - Sales Are Up!

In the April 2012 issue of Guidelines, Commercial Truck dealerships are seeing strong sales, with retail sales the highest since August of 2010! Read the full report here.

Selling Prices and Sales Volume Rising in Early 2012!

With our first two months of 2012 data locked up, we are predicting a strong quarter vs. quarter comparison vs. 2011. For the first two months of 2012, the overall sleeper market was up $3268 (or 6.9%) vs. the same period of 2011. This increase is despite mileage 33,633 (or 6.1%) higher. Our rule of thumb remains in place – the market is tolerating pricing in the mid to high $40’s for trucks with mileage in the low to mid 500’s. Four-year-old sleeper tractors were up $3114 (or 4.5%) in the same period. The 2009 model year is showing strength despite being the first full year equipped to the 2007 emissions spec. As we examined in a blog we posted recently, 2007 emissions level is not a hindrance to used truck buyers. Retail sales per dealership were their strongest in well over a year, with February’s 7.5 trucks per dealership the highest since August of 2010. After a dip in the 4th Quarter of 2011, a sustained increase would be encouraging since it would indicate healthy organic demand ...

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