From the monthly archives: April, 2013

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'April, 2013'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

Sleeper Tractor Pricing Sets New Record

Retail sales data submitted by dealers and OEM’s to NADA shows that the average sleeper tractor sold in March for $50,765. This figure represents the highest average price we’ve seen since our current data collection processes were put into place more than five years ago. This record result is $1241 (or 2.4%) higher than February’s, and $2079 (or 4.1%) higher than last March. Mileage was admittedly slightly lower than the recent average, at 524,012. This figure is 15,995 (or 3.0%) lower than February’s, and 18,069 (or 3.3%) lower than last March. However, the last time we saw mileage at this level – in October of 2011 – average pricing was $1401 lower. In the real world, a truck with 525K is not going to bring appreciably more money than a truck with 540K. We therefore consider the impact of mileage on March’s pricing to be negligible to mild. As for age, March’s average was 77. This figure is right in line with recent months – 1 month newer than February, and 3 months older than last March. Age was therefo ...

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Recovery Not Yet Clear in Construction Market

With the housing market in recovery and the fracking industry fully ramped up, it would be logical to start to look for a recovery in the Class 8 construction segment. The graph below shows combined retail and wholesale sales data for the most recent three model years for which we have a meaningful volume of data. At this point, only the 2008 model year has enjoyed an uptick in pricing, with a nice increase starting in the 4th quarter of 2012. 2006 and 2007 trucks were flat in this period. Average mileage was not a major factor in month-to-month changes for any model year. Volume of trucks sold increased mildly in the 1st quarter. Since the newest model year can function as a substitute for new trucks, an increase in pricing and sales volume is potentially encouraging. At the same time, we would need to see a sustained increase in pricing and volume for more model years before identifying a recovery. Fundamentally, residential construction alone is not going to move the bar substantially. Commerci ...

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Medium Duty Conventionals Continue to Recover

March Wholesale data shows that Class 6 conventionals continued to appreciate through the first quarter of 2013. Class 5’s also saw an uptick in March, after holding steady for three months. Class 4’s saw a minor drop in March, putting that segment back to where it was in November of 2012.

In terms of volume, the first quarter of 2013 has seen substantially fewer Class 6 trucks sold than the fourth quarter of last year. This difference is most likely due to the timing of fleet trades– in essence, a supply-side rather than demand-side explanation. Class 5 saw a moderate uptick in volume in March after holding steady from November, 2012 to February, 2013. As such, March’s price increase for that segment looks even more solid. Class 4 saw a very substantial increase in March volume, which likely explains the decrease in pricing. We expect continued general upward movement in Class 4 in the short term.

We will continue to closely monitor all segments of the medium duty market and provide real-time updates.

April Commercial Truck Guidelines Are Available!

Now available for download, the April Commercial Truck Guidelines forecasts little change in the Class 8 markets with little change in the retail and wholesale sleeper tractor markets. Medium duty conventionals continue to recover. This month's edition reveals a special study of the effect of region on price. Download April's edition of Guidelines today to get the full details! 

Which Regions Bring the Highest Price?

The graph below shows the result of organizing NADA’s CY 2012 retail sales data for sleeper tractors into region. The analysis is an attempt to show the relative difference in value placed on trucks sold in each region. For reference, the average sleeper tractor retailed in the US in 2012 was a MY 2007 aerodynamic truck with a large raised-roof sleeper, just over 450HP, and a 10-speed manual transmission. That truck sold for $49,086 and had 547,881 miles. We adjusted for mileage and model year differences between region, but there are a few factors to consider: First, trucks sold in the CA and Desert Southwest regions were notably newer than those in other regions. In fact, there were no sleeper tractors older than MY 2005 reported sold from either region. This is most likely due to the stringent emissions requirements for trucks operating in that region. Our age adjustment came into play here, but this is still a factor to keep in mind. Second, trucks sold in the Mountain region tended to have a hi ...

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Medium Duty Recovery Continues

Data reported to NADA from auctions and dealers indicates that February was the third month in a row to see a substantial increase in selling prices for Class 6 Conventionals. The Class 4 segment is also heading upwards, and Class 5’s remain stable. See graph for details.

After declining throughout most of 2012, Class 6 Conventionals saw a bump up of about $1800 in December, followed by a $1400 increase in January, and a whopping $3000 in February. December’s increase occurred in tandem with an increase in number of trucks sold, which we characterized as a market shift to the positive. Volume subsided quite a bit in January, with a drop of about 70%. That drop could partially explain January’s higher pricing, but February’s volume was nearly identical to January’s. As such, we remain optimistic that improved consumer spending and residential construction may be finally trickling down to the medium duty market.

Stay tuned for further analysis in the April edition of GuideLines, available early next week.

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