From the monthly archives: May, 2013

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'May, 2013'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

Competitive Pricing Comparison

The graphs below outline the average retail selling price of 3-6 year-old aerodynamic sleeper tractors. Our regular updates frequently reference global used truck market averages, so these graphs provide more detail into how each model is performing. Aside from model vs. model differences, one main takeaway is the upward directional movement in recent months of most models. This performance is evidence of the continued favorable demand/supply relationship for trucks with under 600,000 miles. Stay tuned for more analysis in the June edition of Guidelines, available early next month.

Medium Duty Recovery Takes a Breather

After a promising first quarter, April’s wholesale results show a mild decrease in wholesale pricing for our sample population of Class 4-6 Conventionals. Volume was down as well. Specifically, compared to March, Class 4 was down $538 (or 3.8%), Class 5 was down $978 (or 5.4%), and Class 6 was down $924 (or 5.7%). Compared to last April, Class 4 was down $909 (or 6.2%), Class 5 was down $853 (or 4.7%), and Class 6 was down a notable $4433 (or 22.4%). See graph for detail. All classes were down substantially in volume vs. March. The biggest hit was in Class 6, with a 54.6% decrease month-over-month. However, this figure is compared to an unusually strong March. Tough month-over-month comparisons were true for Classes 4 and 5 as well. If March is taken out of the picture, April’s volume was comparable to other recent months. With these vehicles exposed to (and participating in) a wide variety of economic segments, it is difficult to explain monthly changes in price. However, one possible explanatio ...

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Another Record Month for Sleeper Tractors

The spring of 2013 is shaping up to be a hot one for sleeper tractors. April built on March’s record high retail pricing, to come in at $51,391, a $626 (or 1.2%) increase. Year-over-year, April 2013 was $1694 (or 3.3%) higher than April 2012. See graph below for detail. Like last month, average mileage was slightly lower than the recent mean, at 529,183. This figure is 5171 (or 1.0%) higher than March, but 18,091 (or 3.3%) lower than last April. April’s average mileage is lower than the most recent two-quarter average by about 10,000, which would make a negligible to mild impact on average pricing. It looks like the main factor behind the increased pricing is the larger number of newer sleeper tractors entering the retail market. The 2009 and 2010 model years have notably increased their representation in the past two quarters, and are bringing money in the mid $50’s (2009) to the mid-$60’s (2010). See graph below for detail. With higher-mileage trucks increasingly directed to the ...

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Higher Volumes and Lower Pricing in the Auction Market

As mentioned in our most recent Guidelines, the volume of trucks reported sold at auction has increased notably since 2013 began. We stated that this increase is likely due in part to a greater number of sleeper tractors with over 600,000 miles filtering through this channel. Further investigation suggests that medium duty trucks and vans are also a likely factor. April was a particularly high-volume month, with 3716 trucks reported sold. This figure is the highest we’ve seen since August of 2010, and is 659, or 17.7%, higher than last April. Through the first four months of 2013, we show a total of 12,163 trucks reported sold. This figure is 1431, or 11.8%, higher than the same period last year. Pricing on average has decreased moderately during this period. In the first four months of 2013, auction pricing averaged $13,059, which is $1411, or 9.8%, lower than same-period last year. Keep in mind that these averages are for the entire combined medium and heavy markets. More detailed analysis by ma ...

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May 2013 Commercial Truck Guidelines Are Available!

May's edition of Commercial Truck Guidelines is now available for download, with a special study on pricing of pre-DPF vs. DPF-equipped trucks. Average sleeper tractor retail pricing is the highest in at least 5 years! Download this month's edition today!
 

Are 2007’s Really Worth More than 2008’s?

Common wisdom among many people in the used truck business is that pre-DPF trucks will bring more money than DPF-equipped trucks, specs and mileage being equal. This means that the last of the pre-DPF trucks (2007 model year) should be worth more than the first of the DPF-equipped trucks (2008 model year). In other words, DPF overrides model year. We tested this theory and, to be blunt, found it false. The graph below shows retail selling prices for MY2007 and MY2008 sleeper tractors broken down by mileage range, for trucks sold in the first 3 months of 2013. Data has been “cleaned” as much as possible to adjust for spec and model, so the impact of those factors should be minimal. As you can see, 2008’s brought notably more money for every mileage band above 300K.The average premium for a MY2008 sleeper tractor was $5362. One potential factor behind the difference in pricing is the notably higher volume of 2007’s sold. We show 596 MY2007 sleeper tractors reported sold during this period, as compared to 3 ...

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Value of Natural Gas Trucks

A recent Transport Topics article (subscription required) examined the issue of insurance underwriting for natural gas vehicles. Underwriters are finding it somewhat challenging to write coverage for these vehicles due to the lack of market experience. NADA’s database of sold natural gas vehicles is essentially nonexistent. Even with the recent improvements in availability/choice and interest in natural gas vehicles, the segment remains miniscule. In addition, owners of NG equipment tend to hold on to these trucks longer than usual. As such, there have been almost no NG vehicles reported sold to NADA over the years. Going forward, as is usually the case with new vehicles, there will be a bit of a chicken/egg scenario – sellers may have difficulty selling/financing the truck because there’s no NADA value for it… but there’s no NADA value for it because none have been reported sold. What usually happens is a few dealers will make a judgment call and establish the first few selling prices for the truck. Then, ...

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