Guidelines

NADA Guidelines is a must-have resource for analysis and information on the current state of the automotive market, as well as that of the overall economy. This market report compiles a robust data set from various industry sources as well as from our own propriety analytical tool, to deliver the insight you need to make decisions in today’s market.

READ NADA USED CAR GUIDE GUIDELINES


December 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Strong demand and a pullback in auction volume slowed used vehicle depreciation to one of the lowest levels of the year in November. Wholesale prices for vehicles up to eight years in age slipped by a mild 1.3 percent in November, which is a result better than what has been historically recorded for the month and also one that ended a four month streak with depreciation at or above 3 percent. Download the December Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: October sales volume was down in both the retail and wholesale markets, but pricing for individual trucks was stable. The continued marketplace shift favoring newer trucks pushed our universal retail sleeper average to yet another record. The retail and wholesale channels diverged more than usual, with trucks sold wholesale trending older than in recent months. Going forward, volume should remain slightly off the 12 month average through the winter months, but pricing should remain strong. Download the December Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


November 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Our monthly economic reports are beginning to get repetitive,but we would rather repeat good news than bad. The two real negatives remain the equities markets ― in a funk since September ― and housing which continues to disappoint even our slightly revised forecasts. Yet, in spite of these two negative aspects, economic growth looks set to pick up as we move through the rest of the year. Things look well enough for us to revise our 2014 gross domestic product upward slightly to 2.1 percent ― though we leave light vehicles unchanged at 16.4 million. Download the November Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: The volume of Class 8 trucks sold was up in both the retail and wholesale channels in September, with late-model trucks responsible for the increase. Supply of these trucks accelerated in late summer, shaking up the mix of trucks available to the marketplace. Medium Duty segments continue to mildly improve. A special study examines the effect of region on price. Download the November Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


October 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: We are only a few months into our reporting on the economy and we already feel as though “enough said” about U.S. economic growth and motor vehicle sales. Of course the last time we were this optimistic was the summer of 2007, but let’s not go there. We don’t want to undervalue the changes wrought in the economy in the very slow and hard slog back to growth, but we do think the risks to U.S. growth and the automotive sector in North America have been overplayed in the press lately. Download the October Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: Dealers retailed fewer trucks in August than in July, but pricing was little changed. Auction and wholesale sales volume was up slightly over July, but pricing through those channels pulled back - albeit with an asterisk. A special study looks at the factors driving supply and demand of natural gas trucks in the new and used markets. Download the October Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


September 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: For the second month in a row, downward price movement in August was more severe than what's generally been recorded for the month, as wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years in age fell by 3.1% compared to July. The month's showing was the worst for an August since 2002 and its weak performance pulled NADA's seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index down by 0.8 percentage point to 122.5, essentially on par with levels recorded at the start of the year. Download the September Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: Pricing and sales volume for Class 8 highway segments were strong through the summer. Strong demand has kept depreciation to a minimum, despite the higher volume of late-model iron coming off trade. A special study explores the volume of proprietary engines in the used market. Download the September Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


August 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Wholesale price movement in July was decidedly out of character for the month, with depreciation more closely resembling the steeper declines usually witnessed in the fall rather than the more subtle ones observed in the heart of the summer. Download the August Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: Availability of sub-500,000-mile sleeper tractors continues to increase, with strong demand limiting the rate of depreciation. Sales volume was relatively strong in June, with the typical late - spring/early - summer slowdown not present this year. Medium duty segments continue to gradually improve, returning strong year-over-year comparisons. The construction sector remains mixed, with selected regions showing strength. A low supply of 2010 and newer construction trucks supports strong pricing for that segment. Download the August Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


July 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: New and used auto demand remained positive in June as the new vehicle annual sales rate hit its highest mark since July 2006 and strong seasonal demand left NADA’s seasonally-adjusted used vehicle price index essentially unchanged at 126.4, a scant 0.1% lower than May’s record high of 126.5.Download the July Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: 2014 began where 2013 left off, with retail and wholesale activity at moderate levels due to the harsh winter. Then March exploded onto the scene with a massive increase in volume of sleeper tractors sold at auction, driven largely by 5- and 6-year-old trucks (2010 and 2009 model years). April was another big month for late-model sleepers, this time with 3- and 4-year-old trucks responsible for the increase. May’s results confirmed that a market shift was officially underway, with 3-6-year-old trucks selling at higher volumes for another month. Download the July Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


June 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Both new and used auto demand was exceptional in May as the new vehicle annual sales rate hit a seven-year high and strong seasonal demand lifted NADA’s used vehicle price index to a new high of 126.8, 0.5% better than the previous record set just a month earlier. Download the June Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: April’s retail and wholesale Class 8 climate was characterized by a greatly increased number of 2011 and 2012 model year trucks sold, signaling a possible market shift. Increased supply of off-lease units is the underlying factor. Pricing for individual trucks was not notably impacted, suggesting that April’s activity included a degree of leftover pent-up demand post-winter. Download the June Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


May 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: No longer influenced by winter weather, wholesale activity steadily returned to normal in April and the onset of seasonal softness typically observed at the start of a second quarter slowly materialized as the month progressed. Following March’s pronounced 3.7% rise, the average price of units up to eight years in age fell by 1.1% in April, essentially equal to the 1% rate of decline recorded for the month the past two years. The month’s performance left NADA’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index little changed at 125.8, tied with March as the highest figure reached. Download the May Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: The volume of trucks sold at auction roared back in March after a mediocre start to the year, thanks to pent-up demand and the month’s traditionally strong results. Volume through the retail channel increased mildly, potentially representing a return to month-over-month stability. Class 8 retail pricing on average is mildly down, suggesting that late-model trucks may have found their price ceiling. Class 8 wholesale pricing on average also ticked downward, driven by the continued increase in number of high-mileage trucks sold. In the medium duty market, Class 4 conventionals continue to gradually strengthen, while Class 6 conventionals turned in a very strong month. Download the May Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


April 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Wholesale auction prices of used vehicles increased by the highest rate in three years in March, as dealers blocked from purchasing by abnormally harsh weather in January and February were compelled to bid aggressively and play inventory catch-up in preparation for the traditional spring bounce in consumer demand. Late model volume continued to fall while dealer activity was heating up, adding further buoyancy to prices. Last month the number of 2010–2013 model year transactions fell by 4.6% or nearly a point more than the 3.8% fall recorded in February. Download the April Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: Retail and wholesale volume both returned to trend in February, after an anomalous January. Retail sleeper tractor pricing remains at record highs. Wholesale pricing is back to average levels, with age and mileage figures returning to typical positions. The market for medium duty trucks recovered to an extent, with mild strength in the Class 4 conventional segment and notable changes in the Class 6 segment. Class 8 pricing is highly dependent on engine and transmission spec, as a special study explores. Download the April Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


March 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Extreme winter weather thwarted price growth in early February as prices grew by 0.7% over the first half of the month. However, favorable weather over the second half of the month allowed prices to grow by an additional 1.5 points to a total of 2.2% by month’s end, in line with NADA’s forecast of 2.1%. NADA’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index remained unchanged for the third month in a row at 124.6, tying August 2013, December 2013 and January 2014 as the third highest figure recorded. Download the March Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: Increased numbers of newer trucks continue to enter the retail and wholesale channels, providing buyers with better access to the low-mileage iron they demand. Severe weather likely kept many buyers away from the auctions in January, resulting in anomalous results in medium duty and sleeper segments. Used truck pricing could be impacted by upcoming rounds of fuel economy mandates, as a special study explores. Continued volatility in sales volume is expected to subside in the second quarter as winter draws to a close. Download the March Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


February 2014 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: The continuous blasts of arctic weather that affected large swaths of the country did little to push used vehicle prices off of their expected course in January, as the month’s essentially flat increase of just 0.1% relative to December was in line with NADA’s forecast for the period. NADA’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index was unchanged at 124.6 in January, tied with two other months (August 2013 and December 2013) as the third highest figure ever recorded. Download February Used Car Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: A favorable supply/demand relationship keeps pricing for sleeper tractors with under 600,000 miles historically high. Construction trucks firmed up in the last two months of 2013, and are poised for a recovery. Medium duty trucks continue to be limited by excess supply of average-to-high-mileage units. Sales volume is unusually volatile due to economic, political, and weather-related factors. This volatility is expected to relax starting in the second quarter as many of these factors are alleviated. Download February Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


January 2014 Guidelines

Used Car and Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: After declining by 1.5% in November, the rate of used vehicle depreciation pulled back again for the second month in a row in December as wholesale prices for units up to eight years in age fell by 1% on a prior-month basis. Download January Used Car Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: In this edition, we provide a 2013 review and discuss the marketplace changes that occurred over the past 24 months. We also provide our traditional month-over-month results, as well as predictions for 2014. Download January Used Car Guidelines here.


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