NADA Guidelines is a must-have resource for analysis and information on the current state of the automotive market, as well as that of the overall economy. This market report compiles a robust data set from various industry sources as well as from our own propriety analytical tool, to deliver the insight you need to make decisions in today’s market.
READ NADA USED CAR GUIDE GUIDELINES
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Used vehicle depreciation improved moderately in October as the month’s 2.8% decline was somewhat better than the 3.5% drop recorded in September. October’s performance was also the best for the month in three years, as prices in both 2013 and 2014 fell by a more significant 3.6%. In dollar terms, the 0.8-percentage point difference translates into a nearly $175 improvement in monthly depreciation for a $20,000 vehicle.Download the November Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: Thanks to an increase in new truck sales, fleets have been returning large numbers of 3 – 5 year-old trades since mid-2014. This volume increase has been represented mainly by three specific models. In the late summer of 2015, this inventory began to be liquidated in greater numbers, mainly through one auction company. This particular outlet was chosen because it runs absolute (no reserve) auctions, which is an efficient way to write off excess inventory if maximum pricing is not the priority. This activity relaxed in September, but then ramped up even more in October. See the “Auction Volume for the Three Most Common Sleepers” graph for detail. Download the November Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: The pace of used vehicle depreciation accelerated considerably in September, as wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years old fell by 3.4% compared to August. The month’s decline was nearly 1.5-percentage-points more than August’s 2% drop and moderately worse than NADA Used Car Guide’s 3% high-end forecast. Download the October Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: As of this writing in early October, it looks like the third quarter followed the trend of the first half of the year. Retail volume was depressed, wholesale volume was strong, and pricing in both channels was mildly downward. Depreciation through the end of the year should moderately accelerate as supply continues to increase and winter demand patterns set in. Download the October Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Wholesale used vehicle prices fell by 1.9% on a monthly basis in August. That figure is moderately better than NADA Used Car Guide’s 2.2% ─ 2.7% forecast and a substantial improvement over the nearly 3% fall recorded last year. The month’s result placed NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index at 123.1, up a slight 0.3% from both July (2015) and August (2014). Considering the index is down a mere 0.5% year-to-date, used vehicle demand — and thus prices — has remained strong despite higher new vehicle incentives (particularly lease incentives) and an ongoing rise in supply. Download the September Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: Retail sales volume recovered from an unusually low June, and wholesale volume remains strong. On average, month-over-month pricing in both channels saw little change with selected individual models showing movement. Medium duty conventionals had a better month, while cabovers remained stable. This month, we look at the market for 6x2’s and dive deeper into factors driving retail and wholesale volume. Download the September Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Prices of used vehicles up to eight years in age fell by 2.2% on a monthly basis in July, essentially hitting the midpoint between NADA Used Car Guide’s 2% ‒ 2.5% forecast for the month. While July’s fall was a vast improvement over last year’s 3.2% drop, it was somewhat worse than the month’s historical performance. As a result, NADA UCG’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index declined moderately, falling by 0.9% from June to 122.6. Download the August Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: The retail and wholesale Class 8 markets diverged a bit in June, with retail volume off notably, but wholesale volume up by a similar degree. Pricing in both channels was similar to the previous month. Medium duty cabovers recovered somewhat from their May dip, while conventionals were stable, to mildly upward. Download the August Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: With the first half of the year now behind us, one could say used vehicle prices have held up well despite mounting pressure from the new vehicle market and rise in supply. After all, NADA UCG’s index slipped by just 0.6% over the first half of 2015 compared to the all-time high reached over the same period in 2014. In addition, depreciation year-to-date (YTD) stands at 9% relative to all of 2014, which is only moderately higher than the 7.2% rate recorded last year and less than the nearly 10% YTD fall logged in 2013. Download the July Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: Retail and wholesale pricing for sleeper tractors trended downwards in May, running slightly behind last year. Incoming supply is the main factor behind mild price relaxation. A competitive comparison tracks model vs. model pricing performance. Medium duty conventionals continue their recovery, while cabovers faltered this month. Download the July Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: If there is one thing consumers have not given up on, it is their need for a new truck. America’s love affair with all things large continued unabated in May with light trucks trouncing cars 55% to 45%. We have long believed that light trucks would take a large lead in 2015. The combination of low gasoline prices, more fuel efficient options, and low rates make the utility and versatility of a CUV or pickup that much more appealing. Download the June Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: The retail market is mildly outperforming expectations, with only minor depreciation despite increased volume. The wholesale channel looks a bit less strong, perhaps predicting mild weakness going into the summer. A competitive comparison tracks model vs. model pricing performance. Medium duty trucks continue to improve across the board, although volume was down this month. Download the June Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: As is typically the case, used vehicle prices followed up their first quarter improvement by weakening moderately in April. Compared to March, prices of used vehicles up to eight years old fell by 1.4% in April, which is an amount similar to the 1.3% decline recorded for the month in 2013 – 2014. The month’s steady performance placed NADA’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index at 124.3, down slightly from March’s revised figure of 124.5, but well below last April’s lofty 125.8. Download the May Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: Class 8 sales volume has rebounded nicely so far this spring. Retail and wholesale pricing has held up relatively well despite the increased volume, with a few exceptions. In the medium duty universe, conventional segments look incrementally better than last year, while cabovers may be recovering more notably. A special study looks at the factors currently impacting the market for natural gas power. Download the May Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: The used vehicle market made up for lost ground in March, as thawing temperatures allowed dealers and consumers to re-engage one another after harsh winter weather crimped market activity over the first two months of the year. Prices of used vehicles up to eight years in age improved by 2.3% on a monthly basis in March, which was 1.5 percentage points more than February’s tepid 0.8% rise. It was also the highest increase recorded since March 2014 when prices ballooned by over 4%. Download the April Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: Preliminary March data shows retail volume moving back to typical levels after a very depressed January and February. Sleeper tractors from model years 2012 ‒ 2010 continue to dominate the retail and wholesale markets, with depreciation still relatively mild in the retail channel, but more pronounced in the wholesale channel. Medium duty segments continue to improve, with conventionals leading cabovers. Download the April Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: The extreme winter weather that repeatedly ravaged states east of the Mississippi in February also dampened used vehicle price growth during the month. Wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years in age grew by 0.8% over January levels last month, slightly below NADA’s forecasted range of 1% to 1.5%. From a historical standpoint, February’s performance was nearly a full percentage point lower than the roughly 1.7% average recorded for the month from 1996 to 2014 (excluding 2009’s abnormal 6.3% increase). Download the March Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: Three to five-year-old sleepers continue to represent an increasing proportion of the retail and wholesale markets, thanks to the continued influx of trade-ins resulting from increased new truck deliveries. This trend has resulted in notable depreciation in the wholesale channel, but retail pricing has so far held relatively stable. The wave of trades appears to have slowed down in the fourth quarter, but we expect this activity to rebound in upcoming months, with negative implications for pricing. See the “Percentage of Sleeper Market Comprised of 3-5 Year-Old Trucks” graph for detail. Download the March Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: The good news never ends―well, at least for the U.S. automotive retail market. January light vehicle sales came in at over 1.1 million units, up almost 14% from January 2014. It is very hard to imagine a better start to the year than a SAAR of 16.56 million. Our light vehicle sales forecast is unchanged at 16.94 million units. Our segment forecast expects a split of 56% light trucks and 44% cars. Even in a growing market, we expect small cars and midsize cars to lose some marginal volumes. Luxury cars will hold their own, but the real growth will be in pickups, CUVs (compact utility vehicles) and SUVs (though CUVs and SUVs are largely indistinguishable now). Download the February Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: Sleeper tractors with less than 500,000 miles are depreciating at a mildly accelerated rate, due most likely to the increased supply of trades. The Peterbilt 587 and Freightliner Cascadia led the 3-year-old market in 2014, outperforming the industry average. A recovery appears to be underway for most segments of the medium duty market. Retail sales volume is stable, with little change from 2013-2014. Wholesale volume was up incrementally in that period. Expect stable to mildly downward pricing in upcoming months as the supply of trades accelerates. Download the February Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: What a Happy New Year: Not only are we over our collective equity market hangover, but we rounded out 2014 as one of the best years in automotive sales history. Our forecast for light vehicles ‒ which we made back in January of 2014 ‒ was spot-on. We expected to sell 16.42 million light vehicles and ended up selling 16.44 million. This isn’t to say there weren’t a few surprises, as oil has fallen sharply on the back of a market share war with Saudi Arabia and our interest rate forecast was also off; we expected a rise and ended up largely unchanged. Our fears about a weakening Chinese economy and continued dying growth in the Eurozone and Japan proved accurate. Download the January Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.
Commercial Truck Guidelines: The year 2014 was marked by increased availability of late-model,lower-mileage trucks driven by a return to 3-to 5-year trade cycles. Pricing remained extremely strong for these trucks, thanks to heavy demand. Retail and wholesale sales volume declined in the fourth quarter, but pricing remained elevated. In general, year-over-year comparisons for most segments were favorable in 2014. Download the January Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
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