Guidelines

NADA Guidelines is a must-have resource for analysis and information on the current state of the automotive market, as well as that of the overall economy. This market report compiles a robust data set from various industry sources as well as from our own propriety analytical tool, to deliver the insight you need to make decisions in today’s market.

 

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November 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines:October is typically one of the softest months of the year for used vehicle prices, and this year was no exception. Wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years in age experienced a 3.6% decline on a monthly basis in October, matching September for the biggest drop recorded in 2016. The month’s loss matched expectations for the period, landing inside NADA Used Car Guide’s forecasted range of 3.2% to 3.7%. Compared to previous years, this October’s loss was slightly more than the previous 3-year average decline of 3.3% for the period. As a result of the month’s performance, NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index fell by 0.5% to 117.2. Download the November Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines

Commercial Truck Guidelines:  The retail and wholesale environments turned mildly negative in September and October, following a stable summer. Auction volume and pricing were down in October, while retail pricing dipped across the board. Download the November Commercial Truck Guidelines

 


October 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines:  Wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years in age fell by 3.6% in September. The month’s loss fell nearly in the middle of NADA Used Car Guide’s forecasted range of 3.3% to 3.8%. September’s month-end result was the largest decline recorded yet in 2016. Losses for the period over the previous three years averaged a similar, but slightly lesser, 3.3%. As a result of the month’s performance, NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index fell by 1% to 117.5. The figure brings the index to its lowest level since March 2011 when it was 116.2. Download the October Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines.

Commercial Truck Guidelines:  Auction volume increased moderately in September, but the impact to pricing was minimal. Retail pricing continues to outperform expectations, and the volume of trucks sold to end users increased dramatically month-over-month. Lower pricing may be enticing more buyers back into the marketplace. Download the October Commercial Truck Guidelines.

 


September 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines:  Matching expectations for the month, wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years in age fell by 2.6% in August. August’s month-end result was the largest decline recorded so far in 2016; losses for the period over the past three years averaged a slightly less 2.2%. As a result of the month’s performance, NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index fell by 0.4% to 118.6. Download the September Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines.

Commercial Truck Guidelines:  The late summer has brought with it a slowdown in sales and pricing in both the wholesale and retail used commercial truck markets. The number of sleeper tractors sold at auction dropped notably for the third month in a row. Pricing in the auction lanes and from dealer-to-dealer was moderately lower. On the retail side, pricing dipped slightly. Depreciation continues to mildly outperform our 3% – 5% per month forecast. Download the September Commercial Truck Guidelines.

 


August 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines:  Wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years in age fell by 2.3% on a monthly basis in July, tying June for the biggest drop recorded so far in in 2016. NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index also declined, dropping by 1.1% to 118.9. Download the August Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines.

Commercial Truck Guidelines:  Auction and dealer-to-dealer wholesale prices have been generally flat May through July, but retail prices dropped moderately in June to undo May’s upward bump. Large groups of identical, low-priced units are increasingly common. The trend impacts our averages and market prices overall. Download the August Commercial Truck Guidelines.

 


July 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines:  Essentially matching expectations for the month, wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years in age fell by 2.4% in June compared to May. While June’s decline was the steepest recorded so far in 2016, it was on par with the month’s performances over the past several years. As a result, NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index moved little, falling by a slight 0.2% to 119.9. Download the July Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines.

Commercial Truck Guidelines:  May was essentially a carbon copy of April in most segments of the market. Depreciation relaxed as buyers and sellers gained familiarity with the new normal of substantial supply and lower trade values. Download the July Commercial Truck Guidelines.

 


June 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines:  Typical for the month of May, depreciation accelerated as wholesale prices of used vehicles up to eight years in age fell by 2% compared to April (or a half-percentage point more than the 1.5% drop recorded a month earlier). But while depreciation on a monthly basis was higher, May’s performance was better than expected and was an improvement over the 2.7% decline averaged over the previous four years. Download the June Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines.

Commercial Truck Guidelines:  Class 8 auction volume remains relatively steady, well behind the second half of 2015. Volume is shifting to one specific model, and daycabs, in general, are seeing a higher supply. Retail pricing continues to catch up to wholesale, with the market sticking to our depreciation forecast of 4 – 5% per month. The freight environment remains muted, limiting demand for new and used trucks. Download the June Commercial Truck Guidelines.

 


May 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines:  NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index fell for the fifth straight month in April, dropping by 0.6% from March to 118.0. The softness exhibited over the first third of the year placed the index 4% below 2015’s four month average and dropped it to its lowest level in more than five years. While weakness over the first quarter of the year was largely universal across segments, April’s meager showing was largely due to a poor performance by cars. Download the May Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines.

Commercial Truck Guidelines:  Preliminary April data points to more stable Class 8 selling prices in retail, wholesale, and auction channels. Seasonal improvements combined with increased demand spurred by lower price levels are the likely factors behind the moderation. Download the May Commercial Truck Guidelines.

 


April 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines:  Wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years old usually climb during March, and this past month they did so by just over 1% on a monthly basis. The upward tick is not without converse occurrence since it was well below the 2.7% average rise recorded from 2009 – 2015. March’s tepid performance pulled NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index down by roughly 1% from February to 118.6, which is the lowest level recorded since early 2011. The first quarter of the year ended with the index down 3.6% from Q1 2015, marking the first year-over-year decline for the period since 2009’s recession induced slide. Download the April Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: Depreciation in the retail channel is catching up to devaluation in the auction lanes. Dealers are more aggressively reducing pricing to move aging inventory. Medium duty segments are generally outperforming 2015, with pricing stable despite higher volume. A special study looks at pricing of automated versus manual transmissions in the Class 8 sleeper segment. Download the April Commercial Truck Guidelines

 


March 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Wholesale used vehicle prices historically rise in February as dealers prepare for the increase in consumer demand that accompanies the onset of spring. In fact, up to this year prices had moved higher in February for 20 years straight. The streak came to an end last month, however, as wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years in age fell by nearly 1% from January. An above average increase in late-model supply was likely partially responsible for the month’s subpar performance as auction volume of 2014 and 2015 models increased by an average of roughly 20% from January to February. While it’s normal for volume to grow over the period, the rise was four times larger than what occurred on a likemodel age basis in the two years prior. Download the March Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: As of this writing in early March, preliminary February retail sales data points to stable to downward pricing and volume. February auction volume was on par with the second half of 2015, and pricing was steady. Looking ahead to March data, retail results should be similar to slightly higher in volume, with pricing mildly lower. Auction volume and pricing should be similar to February. Download the March Commercial Truck Guidelines here.
 


February 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: Wholesale used vehicle prices were flat in January, ticking down by just 0.1% compared to December. While the difference is small, January’s movement was slightly worse than the 0.3% rise averaged over the previous five years. As a result, NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index slipped as well, dipping by 0.3% month-over-month to 122.2. The index stood at 125.4 last January, 2.6% above this year’s level. Download the February Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: The volume of commercial trucks sold at the nation’s two largest no-reserve auction companies shook up the market last year, and the industry continues to adapt to this new normal. January was a very slow month for auction, wholesale, and retail sales, but February returned to high auction volume. We will continue to focus our analysis on auction trends going forward.  Download the February Commercial Truck Guidelines here.

 


January 2016 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: The wholesale market closed the year on something of a down note in December as prices of used vehicles up to eight years old fell by almost 2% over the month. The fall was much steeper than the 0.5% decline averaged for the period over the previous five years and marked the weakest result for the month since 2003. As a result, NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index fell by 1.6% from November to 122.4, and moved nearly 2% below last December’s level. Download the January Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: To continue our 2015 review, this month we’ll look at market performance of daycabs and construction trucks in addition to sleeper tractors. Download the January Commercial Truck Guidelines here.

 


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