Guidelines

NADA Guidelines is a must-have resource for analysis and information on the current state of the automotive market, as well as that of the overall economy. This market report compiles a robust data set from various industry sources as well as from our own propriety analytical tool, to deliver the insight you need to make decisions in today’s market.

READ NADA USED CAR GUIDE GUIDELINES


January 2015 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: What a Happy New Year: Not only are we over our collective equity market hangover, but we rounded out 2014 as one of the best years in automotive sales history. Our forecast for light vehicles ‒ which we made back in January of 2014 ‒ was spot-on. We expected to sell 16.42 million light vehicles and ended up selling 16.44 million. This isn’t to say there weren’t a few surprises, as oil has fallen sharply on the back of a market share war with Saudi Arabia and our interest rate forecast was also off; we expected a rise and ended up largely unchanged. Our fears about a weakening Chinese economy and continued dying growth in the Eurozone and Japan proved accurate. Download the January Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: The year 2014 was marked by increased availability of late-model,lower-mileage trucks driven by a return to 3-to 5-year trade cycles. Pricing remained extremely strong for these trucks, thanks to heavy demand. Retail and wholesale sales volume declined in the fourth quarter, but pricing remained elevated. In general, year-over-year comparisons for most segments were favorable in 2014. Download the January Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


February 2015 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: The good news never ends―well, at least for the U.S. automotive retail market. January light vehicle sales came in at over 1.1 million units, up almost 14% from January 2014. It is very hard to imagine a better start to the year than a SAAR of 16.56 million. Our light vehicle sales forecast is unchanged at 16.94 million units. Our segment forecast expects a split of 56% light trucks and 44% cars. Even in a growing market, we expect small cars and midsize cars to lose some marginal volumes. Luxury cars will hold their own, but the real growth will be in pickups, CUVs (compact utility vehicles) and SUVs (though CUVs and SUVs are largely indistinguishable now). Download the February Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: Sleeper tractors with less than 500,000 miles are depreciating at a mildly accelerated rate, due most likely to the increased supply of trades. The Peterbilt 587 and Freightliner Cascadia led the 3-year-old market in 2014, outperforming the industry average. A recovery appears to be underway for most segments of the medium duty market. Retail sales volume is stable, with little change from 2013-2014. Wholesale volume was up incrementally in that period. Expect stable to mildly downward pricing in upcoming months as the supply of trades accelerates. Download the February Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


March 2015 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: The extreme winter weather that repeatedly ravaged states east of the Mississippi in February also dampened used vehicle price growth during the month. Wholesale prices of vehicles up to eight years in age grew by 0.8% over January levels last month, slightly below NADA’s forecasted range of 1% to 1.5%. From a historical standpoint, February’s performance was nearly a full percentage point lower than the roughly 1.7% average recorded for the month from 1996 to 2014 (excluding 2009’s abnormal 6.3% increase). Download the March Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: Three to five-year-old sleepers continue to represent an increasing proportion of the retail and wholesale markets, thanks to the continued influx of trade-ins resulting from increased new truck deliveries. This trend has resulted in notable depreciation in the wholesale channel, but retail pricing has so far held relatively stable. The wave of trades appears to have slowed down in the fourth quarter, but we expect this activity to rebound in upcoming months, with negative implications for pricing. See the “Percentage of Sleeper Market Comprised of 3-5 Year-Old Trucks” graph for detail. Download the March Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


April 2015 Guidelines

Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines: The used vehicle market made up for lost ground in March, as thawing temperatures allowed dealers and consumers to re-engage one another after harsh winter weather crimped market activity over the first two months of the year. Prices of used vehicles up to eight years in age improved by 2.3% on a monthly basis in March, which was 1.5 percentage points more than February’s tepid 0.8% rise. It was also the highest increase recorded since March 2014 when prices ballooned by over 4%. Download the April Used Car & Light-Duty Truck Guidelines here.

Commercial Truck Guidelines: Preliminary March data shows retail volume moving back to typical levels after a very depressed January and February. Sleeper tractors from model years 2012 ‒ 2010 continue to dominate the retail and wholesale markets, with depreciation still relatively mild in the retail channel, but more pronounced in the wholesale channel. Medium duty segments continue to improve, with conventionals leading cabovers. Download the April Commercial Truck Guidelines here.


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