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Used vehicle prices for units up to eight years in age are down by 3.4% so far this month, which is slightly higher than NADA’s 3% top-end forecast for the month. That said, the month’s decline remains in line with results of the past few years, as depreciation for September ranged between 2.5 – 3.6% from 2010 – 2013. If September’s figure holds, prices will have a dropped by an average of 3.2% per month since July and it would mark a streak of losses last seen in late-2011.

On a prior month basis, the number of 2006 – 2014 model year units sold at auction has grown by a 1% month-to-date. While overall volume has remained essentially unchanged, 2014 model year supply has experienced a 34% increase in auction activity due primarily to the seasonal surge of off-rental supply that happens around this time each year.

September price movement at the segment level has more or less followed the same pattern observed over the past few month’s where the biggest losses have been recorded in segments where new market competition and used supply growth has been most significant. Subcompact, compact and mid-size car segments continue to perform rather poorly, with prices down by between 3.2 - 3.6% for the month.

Large SUVs have also experienced an extremely large drop-off in prices, and are currently down by 4.3% so far in September. While the month’s loss seems like a lot right now, it’s important to remember that this is an extremely low volume segment and substantial prices swings at the individual model level can significantly affect the overall representation of prices for the group. Popular models like the 2013 Chevrolet Suburban, 2013 Ford Expedition and 2013 Toyota Sequoia have experienced price declines of between 4.6% - 5.8% this month, which have helped drag the segment’s overall average down by the most we’ve seen since November 2009’s loss of 4.9%.

Two other mainstream segments with hefty losses this month are mid-size utilities and vans, each down by 3.1%. Results are unsurprising given both segments exposure to rental fleets. Losses among remaining mainstream segments currently range between 2.1 - 2.5%, while luxury segment losses are between 1.1 - 2.4%.