The auction market performed closer to expectations in September, with a notable increase in the number of sleeper tractors of most model years represented. Pricing for our benchmark model was mostly lower, particularly for model-year 2015 trucks, which were impacted by higher volume and higher average mileage. See below for detail.

Model year 2015: $38,000 average; $17,750 (31.8%) lower than August

Model year 2014: $34,750 average; $1,750 (4.8%) lower than August

Model year 2013: $27,750 average; $2,250 (7.5%) lower than August

Model year 2012: $26,750 average; $2,000 (8.1%) higher than August

Model year 2011: $21,750 average; $1,250 (6.1%) higher than August

The severe drop in our pricing average for 2015’s is a bit misleading. This month’s figure was unusually low and is being compared to an unusually strong previous month. There was simply a much higher volume of trucks with high average mileage sold in September compared to August. Newer trucks are indeed seeing more notable depreciation now that more volume is entering the market, but the 31.8% result is not representative of what to expect in the real world.

Despite the value drop in the newest model years, the year-over-year average for trucks four to six years old is still very positive. Trucks in this age range sold in the first nine months of 2018 brought 20% more money than the same period in 2017. On average, this group has lost essentially no value in the first nine months of 2018, averaging 0.2% per month depreciation. This figure compares favorably to an also-very low 0.8% in the same period of 2017.

The number of trade-ins becoming available does appear to be ramping up, now that production constraints have been mostly alleviated and fleets are taking delivery of more new trucks. There may be more downward pressure on newer trucks than in previous months.