As 2019 begins, we can look to the final results of 2018 for guidance on what to expect. Based on November auction and retail data, volatility is increasing, which is typical in winter months. We do predict larger fluctuations in sales volume and auction pricing than last year, due to cooler economic conditions.

The average sleeper tractor retailed in November was 69 months old, had 464,384 miles, and brought $57,644. Compared to October, the average sleeper was 2 months older, had 1,081 (0.2%) more miles, and brought $962 (1.7%) more money. Compared to November 2017, this average sleeper was 3 months newer, had 3,177 (0.7%) more miles, and brought $11,223 (24.2%) more money.

Looking at trucks three to five years of age, November’s average pricing was as follows:

Model year 2016: $80,888 $2,317 (2.9%) higher than October

Model year 2015: $62,058; $450 (0.7%) higher than October

Model year 2014: $47,952; $4,125 (7.9%) lower than October

On a year-over-year basis, late-model trucks sold in the first 11 months of 2018 brought 10.5% more money than in the same period of 2017. Depreciation is running 0.2% per month in 2018, compared to 1.7% last year.

Class 8 sales per dealership came in substantially lower than expected in November, dropping nearly a full truck month-over-month at 4.1.

Stay tuned for auction averages early next week.