From the monthly archives: February, 2012

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'February, 2012'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

Diesel Prices and Used Truck Values

With the average nationwide price of diesel officially over $4/gal., discussion inevitably turns to whether this development will impact the new and used truck market in the short term. Currently, we do not foresee fuel prices fundamentally altering the factors governing new and used truck demand. The trucking industry has gone through two major “cleansing periods” in the past decade – the first in the early 2000’s thanks to the combination of an economic downturn, rise in insurance prices, higher fuel costs, tightened credit, and a glut of used trucks – and the second over the past 3-4 years thanks to the Great Recession. Fleets and owner-operators who survived these challenges likely have enough headroom to absorb continued moderate increases in the price of fuel. In addition, fuel surcharges will be activated, alleviating some of the cost pressure. So don’t expect any shakeouts in the transportation industry. As for fuel pricing itself, most analysts do not foresee diesel prices rising much past the ...

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What Effect Does Engine Type Have on Selling Price?

To follow up on my last post, below are four graphs that trace retail selling prices for 2008 model year aerodynamic sleeper tractors. Results reflect all retail sales we collected in calendar year 2011. The data set includes the same trucks as last time, except now we have added engine as a variable. A few points jump out. First, Volvo’s proprietary D13 and D16 engines held up well against the ISX in most applications. Starting at the top, the 780/D16 brought $1374 more than the 780/ISX. Similarly, the 670/D13 brought $1424 more than the 670/ISX. The 630/D13 was a bit closer to the 630/ISX, carrying a $477 premium. The exception to this rule was the 730, which brought $2438 more when equipped with an ISX. One important variable with Volvos is the transmission. Volvo’s iShift automated manual generally commands a premium. That transmission is mated only to Volvo engines. Since we have not adjusted for transmission in this data set, that factor may be skewing results. A future study ...

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Competitive Pricing Comparison

The graphs below compare average retail selling prices for four-year-old (2008 model year) sleeper tractors. The first graph outlines aerodynamic sleeper tractors. The second outlines traditionally-styled owner-operator sleeper tractors. Data is an average of all retail sales that we collected in calendar year 2011. We have adjusted the figures for mileage. We have NOT adjusted the figures for engine type.

The graphs suggest that the higher-volume trucks generally bring less money than the lower-volume trucks, as you would expect. However, there are exceptions – notably the Freightliner Century Class on the high end and the Kenworth T2000 on the low end.

We’ll see how these comparisons hold up when we dive deeper into this data and investigate the variable of engine make/size in an upcoming blog post. In the meantime, let us know how these results match up with your market experience by commenting below.


In February Guidelines: Flattening Out of the Class 8 Market in 2012 Forecasted

In our February 2012 edition of Commercial Truck Guidelines, NADA forecasts a flattening out of the Class 8 market this year. Retail prices for sleeper tractors were up 17.3% in 2011 vs. 2010 on mileage 10% higher, Wholesale prices for sleeper tractors were up 36% on mileage 4.3% higher. The Price gap between aerodynamic and owner-operator trucks is increasing with construction trucks up 7.4% on mileage 19% higher. Class 3-4 Cabovers are up slightly, but Class 6 Conventionals remain flat. Price ceilings are likely in place in retail and wholesale markets. For in-depth analysis and details, download the February 2012 Commercial Truck Guidelines here.

ATD in Las Vegas!

If you're heading to the ATD/NADA Convention in Las Vegas this weekend, look for me at the ATD Booth! I'll be available to discuss all the data posted in this blog, as well as our commercial vehicle valuation products.

Be sure to check out our VIN scanning functionality for NADA Online - all you have to do is point your smartphone camera at a VIN barcode, and our service will automatically pull up year, make, and model. It's part pf our suite of commercial vehicle valuation products, which help you ensure profitable trade-ins, new sales, and loyal customers! Come by and see a free demo!

And of course, be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook - we'll be posting from the convention floor. Be sure to attend the ATD Super Workshop with Eric Starks of FTR Associates, the Industry Message from Martin Daum of Daimler Trucks, and the Keynote Speaker, Captain Gerald Coffee.


Year-Over-Year Auction Volume by Segment

We’ve crunched most of our 2011 data at this point, and will provide a full 2011 vs. 2010 analysis in our upcoming February GuideLines. In the meantime, here’s a look at year-over-year sales volume in the auction channel for select segments. Data in all graphs has been statistically “cleaned” so as to maintain consistency and eliminate outliers. The first graph shows Class 3-4 cabovers. Interestingly, 2011 saw substantially less volume in all but the newest model years. In percentage terms, 2010 volume was just under 6% higher overall. With supply not an issue in this segment, the logical explanation would be that demand decreased in 2011. However, as we saw in the last blog, pricing increased in 2011. So we have a scenario in which fewer trucks sold for higher prices, even though there were more than enough of these trucks to meet demand. There are a few theories that might explain this behavior – we’ll address these in more detail in the February GuideLines. The next graph shows Class 6 conventio ...

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