From the monthly archives: August, 2012

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'August, 2012'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

July Numbers Unexpectedly Up

With 99% of our July sales data received, we are showing that the average sleeper tractor retailed in July sold for $50,067, had 557,364 miles, and was 75 months old. July’s average price was up 1.7% over June and 5.2% over July, 2011. Average mileage was up 1.8% vs. June, and a substantial 7.7% over last July. Age was up only one month vs. June, but 6 months vs. last July. July was only the second month in the past four years in which average price crested the $50,000 barrier (the other being October of last year). The benchmark four-year-old sleeper tractor retailed for $65,948, less than 1% under June and 8.1% higher than July, 2011. July’s average mileage was 557,364, a 1.8% increase over June but 2.7% lower than July, 2011. As you may recall, last week we projected a minor pullback in July pricing. After a largely flat first half, we are pleasantly surprised to see a two-month increase in average pricing despite higher mileage. We have consistently defined the market as strong for trucks with unde ...

Continue Reading →

Used Truck Sales Volume Remains Steady

With the majority of our dealer sales data received, we are projecting that the number of retail sales per rooftop in July was essentially unchanged from June at 5.9. June’s result was 5.8. 

 The Summer of 2012 has been weaker than the same period last year. July’s result represents a 9.2% decrease vs. July, 2011. At the same time, 5.9 trucks is only 3.3% under the average for 2011 overall, so we are not overly alarmed. We consider the lower figures to be logical given the continued lack of lower-mileage trucks to sell as well as the conservative investment strategies in place at this time.

Stay tuned for final figures early next month.


July Pricing Likely Slightly Down

With about 80% of our July data received, we are projecting that the average retail price of a sleeper tractor declined about 1-2% to come in at approximately $48,500. Average mileage is projected to have increased about 2-3% to approximately 560,000.

The four-year-old sleeper tractor benchmark likely declined by a similar amount, coming in at approximately $64,500. Mileage for this group likely increased by 3-4% to approximately 450,000.

Overall, sleeper pricing remains historically high, with minor downward movement attributable to higher average mileage. Pricing at each mileage interval continues to beat this period last year.

The late-model sleeper market, as measured by four-year-old trucks, is still comfortably ahead of last year, although the spread is shrinking as this group trends mildly downwards.

If these projections hold, we will consider the market relatively steady in spite of reports of higher inventory levels. Stay tuned for final numbers early next month.

Used Truck Fundamentals

Over the past two years, we’ve frequently used the phrase, “fundamentals support high used truck pricing.” What specifically do we mean by this? Basically, we’re talking about supply and demand. On the supply side, number of trucks entering the secondary market is a critical factor. We know from the new truck build rate that the 2008-2011 model years were built in historically low numbers. We can’t precisely predict the timing of trade-ins, but we do at least know that the potential pool of returning trucks will be lower than typical for at least another year. Also, we can survey dealers to determine inventory levels. Currently, dealers are reporting higher inventories, which are a logical result of the healthy sales (deliveries) of new trucks since the beginning of the year. On the demand side, we’re mainly talking about industrial production and manufacturing. The Federal Reserve provides that data. The trucking recovery that began in late 2009 has been tied to manufacturing more than other measures. ...

Continue Reading →

August Commercial Truck Guidelines Are Available for Download!

In this month's edition of NADA Guidelines, the 2nd Quarter of 2012 returned strong pricing results on average, although the rate of appreciation has moderated. Retail and wholesale pricing remains stable, with minor June weakness in late-model retail pricing and mileage-based fluctuations in whole-sale pricing. Disappointing sales volume in May and June pushed that measure lower in Q2 2012 versus Q2 2011. Overall, the used truck market will remain stronger than the new truck market, with sales volume the main factor to watch. Click here to dowload the full analysis.

Implications of Navistar’s Engine Decisions

It was reported today that Navistar will install Cummins’ ISX15 in certain International trucks starting in January. Navistar previously announced adoption of the In-Cylinder Technology Plus (Selective Catalytic Reduction) strategy in MaxxForce engines starting next year. A common topic of discussion recently has been the potential impact to market performance of International trucks in advance of the addition of SCR. In 2003 and 2007, adoption of new engine technologies resulted in a pre-buy, as buyers were cautious of the new technology and wary of price increases. However, there was no pre-buy of note in advance of the 2010 emissions level, partly due to depressed economic conditions, and partly due to assurances that 2010 engines would return increased fuel mileage. Regarding the addition of Cummins, that engine has been in service for over two years now, so it’s a known quantity. The only variable is integration with the International platform, which should be of minimal concern. As for the ICT+ MaxxFo ...

Continue Reading →