From the monthly archives: February, 2013

We are pleased to present below all posts archived in 'February, 2013'. If you still can't find what you are looking for, try using the search box.

Retail Sales Volume Increased in January

Retail sales per dealership increased both month-over-month and year-over-year in January. NADA reporting dealers sold 6.3 trucks per rooftop in January, compared to 5.8 in December and 5.9 in January, 2012 (see graph).

With stable volume and pricing, the retail market for trucks under 600,000 miles is not showing signs of weakness. We will explore these trends in the next edition of our Guidelines monthly market report, available the second week of March.

Retail Sleepers Hold Steady, while Wholesale Sleepers Trend Downwards

Data reported to NADA by dealers and OEM’s show that the average sleeper tractor retailed that month for $48,724, had 542,347 miles, and was 77 months old. Compared to the previous month, these figures were $1095 (or 2.2%) lower on price, 3830 (or 0.7%) higher on mileage, and identical in age. Year-over-year, January, 2013 was $1174 (or 2.4%) higher on price, 322 (or 0.06%) lower on mileage, and 4 months (or 3.9%) older. On the wholesale side, the average sleeper tractor sold at auction or dealer-to-dealer in January brought $23,798, had 715,346 miles, and was 88 months old. Compared to the previous month, these figures are $1499 (or 6.3%) higher on price, 43,940 (or 6.1%) higher on mileage, and 5 months (or 5.4%) newer. Year-over-year, January, 2013 was $12,851 (or 35.1%) lower on price, 134,061 (or 18.7%) higher on mileage, and 22 months (or 25%) older. As you can see from the graph, the retail market is much more stable than the wholesale market. Since the 3rd quarter of 2012, average retail pricing ...

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Truck Plant Layoffs – What Are the Implications?

As you know by now, Daimler, Mack, and Volvo recently announced layoffs at manufacturing facilities, and Navistar closed its Garland, TX plant (). This is my take on this news: I’m mildly surprised, but still not overly concerned about long-term conditions. These layoffs are most likely a reaction to revised short-term order forecasts. Most media outlets have neglected to mention that the layoffs are not permanent – manufacturers are free to call the workers back once order activity picks up. As we all know, new truck buyers have been following an extremely conservative investment strategy since mid-2012, due mainly to uncertainty about the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling. The Legislative and Executive branches should come to some agreement in the next month – most likely a combination of compromise and postponement of deadlines. The business community will most likely be mildly unhappy with the compromise, but guess what – the economy’s going to continue to recover, and at an accelerated pace once further ...

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Final 2012 Numbers

The average retail price of a sleeper tractor sold in 2012 was $49,104. That truck had 547,749 miles and was 75.0 months old. Compared to 2011, average price was 3.6% or $1791 higher, mileage was 4.5% or 24,477 higher, and age was 5.0% or 3.6 months older.

So an older, higher-mileage mix of trucks brought more money. Of course, prices generally stopped increasing midyear, so more micro comparisons are not necessarily as favorable.

The next few months should likely see continued flat pricing. We don’t expect much change until the debt ceiling and spending issues are resolved.

Stay tuned for more analysis in the February edition of Guidelines, available early next month.